Politik

USAs stundande oljekris

Reuters rapporterar idag om en rapport från den amerikanska investeringsbanken Goldman Sachs om att USA, och världen i övrigt, hotas av en allvarlig oljekris. Det är inte omöjligt att oljepriset, som fortsätter att stiga, kan gå från dagens 55 dollar till det dubbla på relativt kort tid.


LONDON (Reuters) – Oil markets have entered a “super-spike” period that could see 1970’s-style price surges as high as $105 a barrel, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a research report.

Goldman’s Global Investment Research note also raised the bank’s 2005 and 2006 New York Mercantile Exchange crude price forecasts to $50 and $55 respectively, from $41 and $40.

These forecasts sit at the top of a table of predictions from 25 analysts, consultants and government bodies surveyed by Reuters.

“We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a “super spike” period — a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.

Financial Times har mer om den stundande oljekrisen .


Oil importing countries should implement emergency oil saving policies if supplies fall by as little as 1m-2m barrels a day, the International Energy Agency will warn next month.

The figure is much lower than the official trigger of 7 per cent of global oil supply equivalent to 6m b/d agreed in the treaty that founded the energy watchdog for industrialised countries after the oil crisis of the 1970s. A fall in supply of just 1m-2m b/d would be equivalent to the disruptions during the 2003 Iraq war or the 2002 oil industry strike in Venezuela.

A warning to set up “demand restraint policiesâ€? in the transport sector, such as driving bans or shorter working weeks, is contained in a study to be published next month during the annual IEA meeting of energy ministers.

It comes as oil is trading at more than $55 a barrel and highlights the agency’s concern about the possibility of a supply shock, the economic impact of high oil prices, and the need to focus on conserving energy rather than simply encouraging higher production.


Om det här scenariet spelas ut så kommer den amerikanska ekonomin att drabbas extra hårt eftersom den ohämmade pribvatbilismen spelar en så viktig roll i USA.

De stigande oljepriset och den sjunkande dollarn kan komma att göra det ännu svårare för USA att fortsätta Irak-ockupationen.

De närmaste månaderna kommer att vara avgörande. Klart står dock att USA ännu inte är berett att vidta några åtgärder för att dämpa oljekonsumtionen

Det förekommer idag stora investeringar i alternativa energikällor som plötsligt har blivit ekonomiskt intressanta här i USA, men samtidigt vägrar bilisterna att begränsa sitt bensinförbruk och försäljningen av bensinslukande SUV har aldrig varit större.