President Obama skulle alltså stifta fred mellan Israel och Palestina. Men som vi vet så har mycket litet hänt efter Obamas historiska tal i Kairo den fjärde juni 2009 Text: Obama’s Speech in Cairo .

Obama har, som Ben Smith skriver i en utomordentligt viktig artikel på bloggen Politico, gjort tabbe efter tabbe som bara en helt oerfaren politiker kan göra. Hans status på den internationella arenan har krympt som en snögubbe i aprilsolen: View from Middle East: President Obama is a problem – Ben Smith – POLITICO.com

Two years later, he has managed to forge surprising unanimity on at least one topic: Barack Obama. A visit here finds both Israelis and Palestinians blame him forthe current stalemate “ just as they blame one another. Instead of becoming a heady triumph of his diplomatic skill and special insight, Obama’s peace process is viewed almost universally in Israel as a mistake-riddled fantasy. And far from becoming the transcendent figure in a centuries-old drama, Obama has become just another frustrated player on a hardened Mideast landscape. The current state of play sums up the problem. Obama’s demand that the Israelis stop building settlements on the West Bank was met, at long last, by a temporary and partial freeze, but its brief renewal is now the subject of intensive negotiations. Meanwhile, Palestinian leaders have refused American demands to hold peace talks with the Israelis before the freeze is extended. Talks with Arab states over gestures intended to build Israeli confidence “ a key part of Obama’s early plan ‘ have long since been scrapped.

Dan Ephron i Newsweek intervjuar Israels Vice Premiärminister Silvan Shalom som lägger all skuld för Obamas misslyckade fredsförsök på Palestinierna: Believe me, we can do it differently, by putting pressure on the Palestinians to resume talks without preconditions. They had 10 months to talk [while Israel froze settlement construction]. They didn’t use those 10 months, they came only in the last month, so it’s their problem.

Dan Ephron skriver i Newsweek om hur religiösa extremister nu infiltrerar den Israeliska armén, något som knappast kommer att göra det enklare för den Israeliska regeringen att kontrollera sina militära styrkor: Are Religious Troops Changing Israel’s Military? – Newsweek

A transformation is sweeping the Israeli military: deeply religious Jews are now filling leadership positions in numbers far exceeding their share of the general population. Given that religious Israelis tend to be more hawkish than most, the trend raises a real question about whether Israel can rely on the Army to implement the toughest parts of any future peace agreement with the Palestinians. … Some defense analysts and former officers worry that the military’s new religiosity could lead to mass insubordination. ‘If soldiers decide they don’t want to participate, that’s one thing, ‘ says Mikhael Manekin, a reserve lieutenant who co-chairs the left-wing group Breaking the Silence. ‘If commanders don’t want to participate, that would be much more worrying. ‘

Joe Klein skriver i Time Magazine om hur oansvarigt Netanyahu-regeringen har agerat, och hur Obama inte har kunnat eller vågat sätta hårt mot hårt: Middle East Pieces – Swampland – TIME.com

… the West Bank government, led by Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad, has been the most responsible and serious in Palestinian history.

The Netanyahu government, on the other hand, has been among the least responsible in Israeli history. It is populated by anti-Arab bigots like Foreign Minister Avigdore Lieberman; it has eased security somewhat on the West Bank, but it continues to build settlements in the Palestinian capital of East Jerusalem. (As far as recognition of the Jewish state of Israel goes, that’s the sort of symbolic gesture–there is de facto recognition, since the Palestinians are negotiating with the Israelis, or trying to–that comes out of true peace settlement.)

Farhang Jahanpour ger en iransk syn på utvecklingen i Mellanöstern och tar upp Obamas märkliga löften om gigantiska vapenleveranser till Netanyahu-regeringen om man bara fortsätter att prata i ytterligare tre månader: Jahanpour: In Israel-Palestine Dispute, Obama Must Start Putting US Interests First | Informed Comment

According to the U.S. media, after eight hours of pleading with Netanyahu to extend the freeze on illegal building work in the occupied territories for a merely 90 days, the Secretary of State gave an undertaking Not to request further extensions of the freeze (what happens if an agreement is not reached during that period?) To shield Israel against hostile resolutions in the United Nations (nothing new there) To prevent the discussion of the UN report on Israeli war crimes in Gaza as set out by a distinguished Jewish judge, or the attacks on the aid flotilla (that says a lot for the US respect for the United Nations and the rule of law) And to top it all, give Israel $3 billion worth of advanced F-35 jets, in addition to billions already given on a regular basis. These would supplement the 20 F-35s Israel already plans to buy for $2.75 billion drawn from annual grants it gets from Washington.

Economist skriver i om hur de båda sidorna fortfarande är oändliga långt från varandra: Israel’s settlements: Re-frozen? | The Economist

Under this new deal, Israel will agree to a 90-day re-freeze in return for a generous package of military and diplomatic goodies from America. These include an additional 20 F-35 stealth fighters, worth $3 billion, to be added at America’s expense to the original 20 ordered by Israel. America has pledged, too, to stiffen its backing for Israel at the United Nations and to work for tougher international economic sanctions against Iran. What happens on the 91st day?

Problemet är att Obama redan har avlägsnat Gaza-remsan från fredsförhandlingarna och nu senast också Östra Jerusalem, som kommer att tillfalla till Israel. Inte så konstigt därför om palestinierna inte är speciellt intresserade av att “förhandla” i tre månader efter vilket Obama har lovat att stoppa alla palestinska försök att vinna självständighet via FN.

Med de fanatiskt Israel-trogna republikanerna i majoritet i representanthuset och med en ny presidentkampanj runt hörnet så är det mest troliga att ingenting kommer att hända. Som vanligt kan man tillägga. Nästa amerikanska president kommer antagligen att bli en republikan, det kan t.o.m. bli Sarah Palin. Så Palestinierna kommer av allt att döma att få vänta i många decennier på sin fred.

Men samtidigt håller situationen i Mellanöstern långsamt på att förändras. Turkiet blir allt viktigare och Iran, Syrien och Egypten kommer på sikt också att moderniseras.

Det lilla Israel kommer inte i all framtid att kunna fortsätta att dominera hela Mellanöstern, ens med USA:s stöd. Det vore som om Tjeckien helt dominerade Europa.

Så freden kommer, men om några decennier, kanske om femtio år, långt efter det att den pinsamma episoden med Obamas “fredsplan” är bortglömd.