Protesterna mot Assadregimen i Syrien började för över fyra år sen. Men trots stöd från Rysslands Putin, Iran och Hizbollah så har regimen aldrig lyckats krossa motståndet som började som fredliga demonstrationer mod den brutala Assad-regimen. Och trots västvärldens och speciellt president Obamas vägran att hjälpa rebellerna så har Assad-regimen steg för steg försvagats. Nu senast has ISIS-tagit över stora delar av Syrien, men även Kurderna och vad som finns kvar av rebellerna, tack vare hjälp från Saudi Arabiens nye kung, har gjort framsteg.
Kriget kommer att fortsätta i år och kanske decennier,men mycket pekar nu på att Assad-regimen has försvagats rejält och att unga män i värnpliktsåldern nu gör allt för att fly Syrien. En flykt som ytterligare försvarar regimen.
Raja Abdulrahim skriver i Wall Street Journal: Syria Army’s Weakness Exacerbated by Draft Dodgers. As war drags on, young men flee country or find other ways to avoid conscription
Soon after the military police came looking for the 25-year-old computer engineer at his family’s home, he fled Syria.
He bribed a security officer to briefly remove his name from the list of men wanted for mandatory military service and paid a taxi driver $1,000 to drive him across the border into Lebanon.
Like many young men living in government-controlled parts of Syria, he had been putting off conscription by paying $2,000 a year, hoping to avoid becoming cannon fodder for a military that has been hemorrhaging soldiers, either by death or defection, after more than four years of war.
The reluctance of young men like him to join has left the Syrian army even weaker as it fights a multifront war. Instead, it has pulled inward, focusing on protecting parts of the country that are essential to President Bashar al-Assad’s seat of power, say Middle East diplomats and a Syrian government official.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates the army has declined to 200,000 soldiers and officers, half the size it was before the uprising. An assessment released last year by the Center for Strategic and International Studies put Syria’s armed forces at 178,000, down from 325,000.
They are aided by about 80,000 militia fighters.
Kurdiska Report: Iranian, Iraqi fighters streaming into Syria skriver om hur Hizbollah och Iran nu skickar truppförstärkningar till Assad-regimen:
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – As many as 7,000 fighters from from Iran and Iraq have recently been deployed in Syria to defend Damascus and other areas controlled by the Shiite government of President Bashir al-Assad, a Syrian security force told the AFP news agency.
“Around 7,000 Iranian and Iraqi fighters have arrived in Syria over the past few weeks and their first priority is the defense of the capital. The larger contingent is Iraqi,” the source told AFP on condition of anonymity.
The AFP report quoted the source as saying the aim was to bring 10,000 troops to support the Syrian army and pro-government militias.
Iranian top military commander Qasem Soleimani confirmed the deployment to Iran’s official news agency IRNA, saying “in coming days, the world will be surprised by what we are preparing, in cooperation with Syrian military leaders.”
Micah Halpern skriver i New York Observer om overifierade rykten om att Putin kan vara på väg att minska sitt stöd till Assad-regimen:Is Putin Cutting And Running From Assad’s Syria? The Russians are leaving Assad in the lurch. Iran may be next.
Asharq al Aswat, a popular Arabic language newspaper published in London, is reporting that Russia is pulling its support from President Assad of Syria.
The paper sites a series of sources saying that sixty-six Russians have been flown out of Syria’s Latakiah airport, bound for Moscow. They are reporting that the Russian Embassy now has a drastically reduced staff and that Russian experts are no longer occupying seats in the Syrian war room.
This move away from Syria comes just as the United States and Russia have decided to become more involved in talks about the country’s future. The pull out by Russia means that the Syrian regime will now have to work much harder to stay in place.
When you combine the gains made by ISIS and by anti-Assad rebel forces, it becomes evident that these groups are now in control of more than half of Syria’s provinces, leaving the Assad regime with control of just 8 percent of the oil resource (ISIS controls 80 percent and the rebels control 12 percent. That leaves Assad very short on cash. The Russian were helping prop up the president but that cash supply is ending.
Det handlar mycket om olja och pengar. Varken Putin eller Mullorna har längre lika stora olje- och gasintäkter som tidigare. Om ett par år kommer läget för Assad-regimen knappast att förbättras. Om det tar så långt.
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