Politik

Öppning mot Iran, marginaliserat Israel mot palestinierna, gerillakrig i Egypten

Mosques

Kairo

President Obamas försök att göra en “pivot” från Mellanöstern till Kina och östasien verkar idag vara en av hans största misstag under hela sin tid i Vita Huset.

För snabbare än en sjunkande oceanångare så sjunker nu Mellanöstern ner i ett helveta som också kommrt att påverka EU och resten av världen.

Syrien fortsätter att implodera, trots att Assadregimen nu har försvagats. Men i skuggan av blodbadet i Syrien så har ett gerillakrig nu startat i Egypten, till stor del tack vare El Sisi-regimens brutala framfart mot civilbefolkningen.

David D. Kirkpatrick skriver i New York Times: Egyptians Adapt as Cairo Is Redefined by a String of Bomb Attacks

Cairo was for decades a bastion of stability, especially compared with Arab capitals like Beirut or Baghdad. Then the Arab Spring uprising that removed President Hosni Mubarak in 2011 set off seemingly endless waves of street protests. Now the military ouster of President Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood two years ago has ushered in a new period of antigovernment violence. A long series of bombings have scared away investors, dashed hopes for a recovery of the tourist industry and reinforced a government crackdown on almost any dissent in the name of battling terrorism.

Human rights advocates say the government’s heavy-handed tactics are perpetuating a cycle of repression by driving some nonviolent opponents toward militancy.

Even the current government’s most enthusiastic supporters say that they see no end in sight for the bombings.

Instead, residents say they focus on the limited nature of the violence so far. In interviews Thursday, they emphasized that none of the attacks to date have caused large-scale casualties among Egyptian civilians. Most have targeted police or government buildings, judicial or security officials, empty businesses or utilities.

I Israel fortsätter Netanyahu-regeringen att metodiskt utöka sin ockupation av Västbanken, utan så mycket osm en pip från vare sig EU eller USA. En ockupation som syftar till att göra situationen ohållbar för palestinierna.

Hilik Bar vice talman i Israels Knesset och generalsekreterare i det israeliska Laborpartiet skriver i New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/21/opinion/israels-other-existential-threat-comes-from-within.html”>Israel’s Other Existential Threat Comes From Within

In place of negotiations toward a two-state solution, however, the increasingly radicalized Israeli right has developed a strategy of “conflict management.” The results are in: endless operations in Gaza, Israel’s southern residents living under impossible conditions, Jerusalem on the verge of a third intifada, weakened Israeli deterrence and an Israel increasingly isolated in the world.

The only way for Israel now to remain both Jewish and democratic — that is, for Israel to remain a democracy and retain its Jewish majority — is to separate from the Palestinians via a two-state solution. Without such a settlement, Israel is drifting ineluctably toward becoming a binational state. And make no mistake: The logic of the binational state means an end to the Zionist project. This threat to Israel is so grave partly because it is happening at a slow enough pace that our leaders can essentially ignore the problem without facing electoral catastrophe.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu helped scupper Secretary of State John Kerry’s push for peace by insisting on Palestinian recognition of Israel as “the Jewish state” — which is an important and fair demand, but not as a precondition for talks. Because of those fruitless efforts and the bitter wrangling over the Iran deal, the Obama administration probably has little interest in spending more political capital on reviving the peace process. So Israel must take the lead to secure its own interests and its own future.

President Obamas öppning mot Iran, slutligen, måste först överleva Netanyahu-regeringens och de amerikanska republikanernas våldsamma försök att stoppa varje försök att lyfta bojkotten och ge Iran en chans att ta sin rättmätiga plats i Mellanöstern. Något som skulle förpassa Israel till en betydligt blygsammare roll än vad landet har idag.

Thomas Erdbrink skriver i New York Times: After Nuclear Deal With West, Iran Gears Up to Cash In

Last month, however, the company, the Telecommunication Company of Iran, was put up for sale, as the Revolutionary Guards now seem more interested in cashing in on what Iranian leaders are hoping will be a flood of foreign investment if a nuclear deal with world powers gains final approval and sanctions are lifted.

And it is not just the Revolutionary Guards. During the past decade, well-connected Iranian investors amassed undervalued assets in poorly executed and frequently corrupt rounds of privatization, buying insurance companies, hospitals, refineries and public utilities, among other things previously run — usually poorly — by the state.

But with Western sanctions putting an ever-tightening stranglehold on the Iranian economy, finding buyers for the assets became next to impossible, especially in recent years. In the absence of outside investors, and no deep-pocketed private buyers in the country, Iranian investment companies fronting for state pension funds, military cooperatives and religious foundations bounced shares back and forth on the Tehran Stock Exchange just to make small profits.

Om Obama kan ro Iranfördraget i hamn så kommer det att hjälpa Palestinierna och förhoppningsvis också vad som finns kvar av Syrien.

Om Netanyahu då kommer att anfalla Iran, som han var nära att göra flera gånger under de senaste åren”:Israel Came Close to Attacking Iran, Ex-Defense Minister Says, betyder mindre än att vindarna då definitivt har vänt och de medeltida Sunni-muslimska diktatorerna kommer att få ökad press på sig att införa något som i alla fall påminner om demokrati.

Men vi har alla all anledning att oroa oss över Mellanöstern. Som lätt kan sprida sig till EU genom de gigantiska flyktingvågen.

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