Politik

Trots sällan tidigare skådad vitriol, Netanyahus försök att stoppa Obamas Iranavtal verkar nära att misslyckas

Molavi Bazaar

Molavi-basaren i Teheran

President Obamas Iranavtal, som undertecknades mellan USA, Storbritannien, Ryssland, Frankrike, Kina, Tyskland, EU och Iran i Lausanne i Schweiz den andra april i år men som måste ratificeras av kongressen, har retat gallfeber på Netanuahu-regeringen i Israel; som har satt till alla klutar för att, tillsammans med den mäktiga AIPAC, American Israel Public Affairs Committee, få så många demokratiska kongressledamöter som möjligt, främst de av judisk börd, att bryta med sin egen president och rösta ner fördraget.

Jonathan Weisman och Alexander Burns skriver i New York Times om de helt hänsynslösa personangreppen på kongressledamöten Jerrold Nadler från New York som stöder fördraget och president Obama:Iran Deal Opens a Vitriolic Divide Among American Jews

The attacks on Representative Jerrold Nadler, Democrat of New York, since he announced his support for the nuclear accord with Iran have been so vicious that the National Jewish Democratic Council and the Anti-Defamation League both felt compelled this week to publicly condemn Jewish voices of hate.

On his Facebook page, Mr. Nadler has been called a kapo: a Jew who collaborated with Nazis in the World War II death camps. One writer said he had “blood on his hands.” Another said he had “facilitated Obama’s holocaust.”

Dov Hikind, a New York State assemblyman, rented a double-decker bus this week; plastered the smiling face of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on it; and parked it in front of Mr. Nadler’s office. On Wednesday, he took six Auschwitz survivors to the office to condemn Mr. Nadler. Then, when groups including the Anti-Defamation League, which opposes the Iran deal, told him to back off, he delivered a mocking sympathy card and teddy bear on Thursday.

“This immature, babyish, childish whining? Stop,” Mr. Hikind said in an interview. “I’m just getting started.”

På Obamas sida står den betydligt blygsammare Israelisk-Amerikanska lobbyorganisationen JStreet som dock visar att Netanyahus motstånd mot avtalet på intet sätt skadar Israel.

Som Jonathan Weissman skriver i New York Times så har President Obama gjort allt för att lugna ner de upprörda känslorna mot avtalet: Obama Tries to Soothe Divided Jewish Community on Iran Deal

President Obama appealed to a divided and troubled Jewish community on Friday, defending his nuclear accord with Iran as in the security interest of both the United States and Israel, and calling for a more civil debate with a congressional vote just weeks away.

In an Internet broadcast from the White House, Mr. Obama took questions from the largest Jewish umbrella organizations. He pledged that the vitriol surrounding the Iran debate would pass quickly as the United States, Israel and allies in the Middle East move toward confronting Iranian aggression beyond its nuclear ambitions.

“A president 15 years from now will not be in a worse position to respond” if Iran tries to quickly obtain a nuclear weapon after much of the accord expires, Mr. Obama said. “He will be in a better position, or she will be in a better position to respond.”
….
While Republicans and conservative organizations are nearly unanimous in their opposition to the Iran accord, Jewish groups that traditionally lean Democratic are divided. In September, when Congress takes up resolutions to scuttle the nuclear deal, Mr. Obama will need Democrats to unite, either to filibuster the resolution in the Senate or to sustain his promised veto.

Men trots att Netanyahuregeringen har stöd från en allians bestående av det republikanska partiet, den Kristna Högern och AIPAC, så har man, som Economist skriver i veckans nummer, inte lyckats få mer än några få demokratiska senatorer eller medlemmar av representanthuset att bryta med sin egen president: The fight to stop the nuclear deal Counting heads Political polarisation is helping Barack Obama to preserve the Iran deal

Ms Murray’s support puts Mr Obama just five votes short of the 34 he needs to sustain his veto. The Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, recently conceded that Mr Obama had “a great likelihood of success” to get the deal passed. It is even possible that the president will not have to use his veto. The Republicans still need four more Democrats to jump ship if they are to overcome a Democratic filibuster and thus send the measure to Mr Obama.

Undoubtedly helping to stiffen Democratic support is the language used by some Republicans, particularly the GOP’s presidential candidates, to condemn the deal and Mr Obama personally. Rick Perry says he would rip it up on the first day of his presidency. Donald Trump reckons the Iranians “are going to take over parts of the world that you wouldn’t believe. And I think it’s going to lead to a nuclear holocaust.” Not to be outdone by Mr Trump for obnoxious invective, Mike Huckabee said that Mr Obama would “take the Israelis and march them to the door of the oven”.

Even less hyperbolic critics have stuck to a simple line that the mullahs have taken Mr Obama for a fool and his naivety and weakness have put Israel at existential risk. They have made little attempt to suggest a better alternative other than one even they must know does not exist (ie, harsher sanctions leading to complete capitulation in Tehran and the dismantling of the country’s entire nuclear infrastructure). Nor has there been any concession to the international nature of the agreement—much of it could go ahead even if Congress decides otherwise. Public opinion is understandably befuddled—polls have shown narrow majorities both for and against the deal, with lots undecided.

I ett tecken på hur desperata motståndarna till avtalet nu har blivit allteftersom man inser att man inte kommer att få mer än några få demokrater att bryta med sin egen president, så skriver Kristina Peterson och Jay Solomon i dagens Wall Street Journal att man planerar att introducera nya sanktioner mot Iran under hösten, sanktioner som på intet sätt kommer att kunna stoppa president Obamas avtal: Foes Try New Ways To Attack Obama’s Iran Nuclear Deal. Republicans plan votes on new Tehran sanctions as Obama moves to lock up support to implement accord

Critics of the agreement in both parties haven’t yet conceded defeat in the congressional battle next month, where they will push to derail the deal.

But as their chances dim, they are preparing to push a rash of new legislation for the fall to increase sanctions on Tehran for its role in supporting terrorist organizations and militant groups active across the Mideast, which could cause Iran to back out of the deal. These politicians also are devising new ways to target the finances of Tehran’s elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“Iran has a long rap sheet, and I want to continue to prosecute Iran for its bad behavior,” said Sen. John Barrasso (R., Wyo.), a member of the Foreign Relations Committee.

The administration has vowed to continue challenging Iran’s terrorist activities and support of militancy, even after a nuclear deal is completed.

But the fresh sanctions push has the potential to put the White House and leading Democrats, such as the party’s presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton, in a quandary. Those supporters of the deal could later face a tough decision over whether to back increased sanctions against Iran.

Den stora busen i det här dramat är Israels premiärminister Netanyahu som har satt stor press på amerikaner av judisk börd i det demokratiska partiet att bryta med sin egen president. Uppmaningar som det stora flertalet alltså inte har hörsammat, och som dom helst hade sluppit höra.

Samtidigt som det nu ser ut som att den israeliska regeringen nu kan komma att leda ett svidande nederlag så kommer derar inflytande i Washington samtidigt att försvagas.

Om Obama kan behålla den majoritet han behöver för behålla en s.k. veto-säker majoritet i kongressens båda kamrar så skulle det bli en politisk seger som inte bara skulle ge John Kerry Nobels Fredspris utan också i grunden skulle förändra Mellanöstern.

Investeringarna skulle flöda in i Iran som snabbt skulle bli Mellanösterns motsvarighet till EU:s Tyskland. En ny regional supermakt som skulle kunna spela en viktig roll föra att lösa inbördeskrigen i Syrien och Irak.

Hotet mot Israel handlar inte om att Iran skulle våga angripa en stat som redan har dussintals atomvapen, utan att den iranska ekonomin kommer att blomstra, och att mullorna kommer att få det allt svårare att behålla makten.

Underskatta inte den iranska IT-industrin som redan har försett Silicon Valley och EU med tiotusentals vältränade entreprenörer och IT-ingenjörer. Som snart kan komma att få tillgång till riskkapital från USA.

En historisk förändring av hela Mellanöstern om bara Obama kan behålla sin veta-säkra majoritet i Kongressen.

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